A single outlay - equipment, a deposit, inventory, a campaign. A recurring cost like a salesperson belongs in the Sales Hire Reality Check.
Money you think you have
$
$
$
The first box is your real bank balance - yes, including the tax money sitting in there. We'll pull that out in a second. The other two are money you're counting on but haven't banked; only cash that's actually cleared can be bet.
What's already got to come out - next 30 days
Only what's due in the next 30 days - not your whole year of bills. What has to clear before the month is out?
Bills you owe
$
$
$
$
$
$
Not yours yetnot yet
$
A customer paid ahead. It becomes yours when you finish the job - until then you owe it in work, or back in cash if you can't deliver.
Never yours never yours
$
$
This belongs to the state and your team - it never becomes yours. Spending it isn't a risk. It's a fuse.
Keep the doors open
$
The basics for 30 days - payroll, rent, the lights. The cushion a bet shouldn't eat.
Fill in the question, the bet, your bank balance, and your monthly cost to continue.
house money card
Free to bet
—
cleared, yours, doors still open
Your bet
—
Never your money
—
tax & withholding you only hold
Cover ratio
—
cleared cash per $1 due in 30 days
Why we won't count the uncollected money
You've earned it, but you haven't collected it - and until it clears, it can still not show up. Accountants call this collectibility: revenue isn't real until collection is reasonably assured. We just hold your spending to the same rule.
This is one bet in your cockpit. The same gap - money you think you have vs. money that's actually yours - is hiding in your pricing, your customer mix, and your runway too. Want me to look at the rest?
Watch the money you can actually bet:
What you think you have—
Set aside - not collected yet—
Real money - in the bank—
Bills you owe (30 days)—
Deposits - work you still owe—
Money that was never yours (tax)—
Keep the doors open (1 mo)—
Free to bet—
What happens when things get harder
Your numbers today
—
free to bet
If the bet runs over budget
—
free to bet
If a slow month cuts the bank balance
—
free to bet
Stress scenarios use fixed parameters. A bet that runs 15% over and a slow month that trims the balance 20% are not disasters - they are ordinary business friction.